Superbowl Sunday Is A Day For Winners

ACE-ACE · Feb 5, 2005

I HAVE SEEN PLAYERS WANTING TO MIDDLE THIS SUPERBOWL
THEY GOT THE LINE AT 6 1/2 AND NOW AT 7 1/2....THE ODD OF DO THIS IS WAY UP THERE....

I BET THE GAME 3 WEEKS AGO AND GOT THE LINE AT 4 1/2

SO IF NE WON BY 5 ,6 OR 7 I WOULD WIN BOTH SIDE....

I HAVE BETTER CHANGE OF MIDDLE!!!! BUT WILL NOT!!!!

THE ODDS ARE TO HIGH TO HIT IT....

ONLY LOSERS PLAY IT SAFE......

JUST AS IN BUSINESS,POLITICS AND EVEN OUR DAY TO DAY LIVES.....RISK TAKING (ONE SIDE) WILL GIVE YOU REWARD...

WHERE WOULD THE FOOTBALL TEAM BE THIS YEAR IF THEY SETTLE FOR A 47 YARD FG EACH TIME!!!

WHERE WOULD CAPPER BE IF THEY BET EVERY TEASER.....PROP BET.....(SICK BETS).....ECT.

SUPERBOWL GAME IS STILL JUST "ONE GAME".....FOR THE PLAYER THAT'S UP FOR THE YEAR...DONT PUT IT ALL ON THE LINE FOR ONE GAME!!! ....YOU WORK TO HARD ALL YEAR FOR WHAT YOU HAVE....

FOR THOSE THAT ARE DOWN FOR THE YEAR...DONT TRY TO GET IT BACK ALL ON ONE GAME!!!!! THERE ALWAY ANOTHER GAME....

AS A CAPPER I KNOW I HAVE A EDGE IF I DO IT RIGHT...BUT IN THE BACK OF MY MIND I KNOW THAT ON AN GIVEN DAY A TEAM CAN BEAT ANOTHER TEAM....

I'M ACE-ACE AND I APPROVE THIS MESSAGE!!!!

ITS BEEN A GREAT YEAR BEING HERE... WE HAVE A LOT MORE WARS TO WIN IN THE YEARS TO COME.....

THANK TO ALL THAT SHARES...

Deb12 · Feb 5, 2005

ONLY LOSERS PLAY IT SAFE......

JUST AS IN BUSINESS,POLITICS AND EVEN OUR DAY TO DAY LIVES.....RISK TAKING (ONE SIDE) WILL GIVE YOU REWARD...

Hello Ace..

Out of curiosity, what is your reasoning for thinking that it wouldn't be smart to Middle this game?

Please do not think that I am trying to tell you what to do or anything of the sort, however, if I were in your shoes with the AFC -4.5 and had the ability to get Philly +7.5...I'd jump all over it because that's a full THREE point overlay.

To me handicapping is all about finding value and limiting risk, which of course in the end should lead to profit over the long haul, personally I tuck half of my bankroll away after the regular season to ensure a profitable year and use the remaining half of my bankroll for the College Bowls and NFL post season.

I've found out the hard way over the years to treat the Super Bowl in much the same light as you would a pre-season or early NFL game with regard to the amount you wager on the game itself because of the fact that little true value can be found and often more value exists in Prop Plays than the side and total....just my thoughts.

take care and good luck!

Deb

TotalRecall · Feb 5, 2005

DEB-I think with a total of 47.5 the odds are too great of it coming down to a TD exactly. If these were two defensive teams with a normal total of 36-37 and a normal season game the odds would be a lot better. However there is the fact that NE is likely to finally get a blow out here since Superbowls have them alot and every other team besides NE that had won at least 3 Superbowls has at least one game in which they blow out the opposition. NE won thet2 previous Bowls by 3 each, therefore... GL whatever you do !

Deb12 · Feb 5, 2005

DEB-I think with a total of 47.5 the odds are too great of it coming down to a TD exactly. If these were two defensive teams with a normal total of 36-37 and a normal season game the odds would be a lot better

Hello Total Recall...

I agree with you in that trying to middle -6.5 and +7.5 by hitting 7 exactly is asking too much, however, that is not what I was referencing...I was referencing Ace's wager of already having the AFC at -4.5 and middling that number with Philly +7.5 which is a full THREE point overlay.

With regard to the game total, I waited and grabbed the UNDER 48, I actually like the UNDER more and more as we get closer to game time, sometimes it comes back to bite me in the &ss but what I have always done in the past is to look at the doggie getting more than a handful of points in a game if I like the UNDER, thus another reason that I also like the Eagles plus the points.

take care and good luck!

Deb

ACE-ACE · Feb 5, 2005

Deb....most Of The Time Player Try To Middle, You End Up Paying The Juice Money...the Bigest Day In Football And Dont Win Or Dont Lose!!

There Is No Value There....

Only 4 Super Bowl 3 Points Or Fewer
Only 15 Super Bowl 10 Point Or Fewer
21 ...14 Or More Points

Out Of 39 Superbowl One Middle Could Of Happen (with A -7) 1998 Stl-7 ...won
23-16.....
Less Than 1% .....

Why It Might Be A Blowout
Both Team Outscore Their Play-off Game By 2 Td
Phi Stated The Season By Becoming The 1st Nfl Team To Win Its 1st Five Games By Double-digit Margins

Ne Outscored Opponents 290-144

Andy Reid Want To "rest" His Nine Pro Bowl Player For Next Week Pro Bowl....not!!

The Winning Margins In The Last Four Superbowl 3...27....3......27.... Its Time For Another 27 Point Game....

This Is Not The Game To Middle

Deb12 · Feb 5, 2005

There Is No Value There....

Only 4 Super Bowl 3 Points Or Fewer
Only 15 Super Bowl 10 Point Or Fewer
21 ...14 Or More Points

Out Of 39 Superbowl One Middle Could Of Happen (with A -7) 1998 Stl-7 ...won
23-16.....Less Than 1% ....

Hello Ace..

Once again, I was not talking about middling -6.5 and +7.5 and thus needing an exact difference of 7....I was talking about you having the AFC -4.5 and middling with a +7.5 which is a THREE point overlay...meaning that you would hit the middle if the patriots win by 5, 6, or 7 points.

Past Super Bowl results show that there have been 11 times when the final score difference fell wthin 5, 6, or 7 points which equates to the final score falling in this range 28.95% of the time in past Super Bowls:

<TABLE><TBODY><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXXVIII</TD><TD>Feb. 1, 2004</TD><TD>New England 32, Carolina 29</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXXVII</TD><TD>Jan. 26, 2003</TD><TD>Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXXVI</TD><TD>Feb. 3, 2002</TD><TD>New England 20, St. Louis 17</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXXV</TD><TD>Jan. 28, 2001</TD><TD>Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXXIV</TD><TD>Jan. 30, 2000</TD><TD>St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXXIII</TD><TD>Jan. 31, 1999</TD><TD>Denver 34, Atlanta 19</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXXII</TD><TD>Jan. 25, 1998</TD><TD>Denver 31, Green Bay 24</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXXI</TD><TD>Jan. 26, 1997</TD><TD>Green Bay 35, New England 21</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXX</TD><TD>Jan. 28, 1996</TD><TD>Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXIX</TD><TD>Jan. 29, 1995</TD><TD>San Francisco 49, San Diego 26</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXVIII</TD><TD>Jan. 30, 1994</TD><TD>Dallas 30, Buffalo 13</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXVII</TD><TD>Jan. 31, 1993</TD><TD>Dallas 52, Buffalo 17</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXVI</TD><TD>Jan. 26, 1992</TD><TD>Washington 37, Buffalo 24</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXV</TD><TD>Jan. 27, 1991</TD><TD>N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXIV</TD><TD>Jan. 28, 1990</TD><TD>San Francisco 55, Denver 10</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXIII</TD><TD>Jan. 22, 1989</TD><TD>San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XXII</TD><TD>Jan. 31, 1988</TD><TD>Washington 42, Denver 10</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XXI</TD><TD>Jan. 25, 1987</TD><TD>N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XX</TD><TD>Jan. 26, 1986</TD><TD>Chicago 46, New England 10</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XIX</TD><TD>Jan. 20, 1985</TD><TD>San Francisco 38, Miami 16</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XVIII</TD><TD>Jan. 22, 1984</TD><TD>L.A. Raiders 38, Washington 9</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XVII</TD><TD>Jan. 30, 1983</TD><TD>Washington 27, Miami 17</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XVI</TD><TD>Jan. 24, 1982</TD><TD>San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XV</TD><TD>Jan. 25, 1981</TD><TD>Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XIV</TD><TD>Jan. 20, 1980</TD><TD>Pittsburgh 31, L.A. Rams 19</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XIII</TD><TD>Jan. 21, 1979</TD><TD>Pittsburgh 35, Dallas 31</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>XII</TD><TD>Jan. 15, 1978</TD><TD>Dallas 27, Denver 10</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>XI</TD><TD>Jan. 9, 1977</TD><TD>Oakland 32, Minnesota 14</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>X</TD><TD>Jan. 18, 1976</TD><TD>Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>IX</TD><TD>Jan. 12, 1975</TD><TD>Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>VIII</TD><TD>Jan. 13, 1974</TD><TD>Miami 24, Minnesota 7</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>VII</TD><TD>Jan. 14, 1973</TD><TD>Miami 14, Washington 7</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>VI</TD><TD>Jan. 16, 1972</TD><TD>Dallas 24, Miami 3</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>V</TD><TD>Jan. 17, 1971</TD><TD>Baltimore 16, Dallas 13</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>IV</TD><TD>Jan. 11, 1970</TD><TD>Kansas City 23, Minnesota 7</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>III</TD><TD>Jan. 12, 1969</TD><TD>N.Y. Jets 16, Baltimore 7</TD></TR><TR class=bg3><TD align=middle>II</TD><TD>Jan. 14, 1968</TD><TD>Green Bay 33, Oakland 14</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD align=middle>I</TD><TD>Jan. 15, 1967</TD><TD>Green Bay 35, Kansas City 10</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ACE-ACE · Feb 5, 2005

I Count 5...

Sb7...=7 Points
Sb16 =5 Points
Sb23 = 5 Points
SB32 =7 POINTS GB WAS FAV BY 11
Sb34 = 7 Points....stl Was Fav By7
5 Or 6 Or 7

Not Sure Who Was Fav In Superbowl 7....16...23...

YOU HAVE TO BASE IT ON WHO IS FAV IN THE GAME....

Deb12 · Feb 5, 2005

YOU HAVE TO BASE IT ON WHO IS FAV IN THE GAME....

Hello Ace..

I am trying to point out to you that REGARDLESS of the attached point spread in past Super Bowls that 11 of them actually landed within 5, 6, or 7 points:

2004, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1991, 1989, 1982, 1979, 1976, 1973, and 1971....take notice that Super Bowls have landed within the range of 5, 6, or 7 points four times in the past seven SB's since 1998.

take care and good luck!

Deb

ACE-ACE · Feb 5, 2005

Deb12 said:
Hello Ace..

I am trying to point out to you that REGARDLESS of the attached point spread in past Super Bowls that 11 of them actually landed within 5, 6, or 7 points:

2004, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1991, 1989, 1982, 1979, 1976, 1973, and 1971....take notice that Super Bowls have landed within the range of 5, 6, or 7 points four times in the past seven SB's since 1998.

take care and good luck!

Deb

I SEE WHAT YOU ARE SAYING....

BUT TO MIDDLE A GAME .....IF PHI WIN BY 5....THAT NOT A MIDDLE....
ITS ONLY A MIDDLE IF THE FAV WINS......NE WIN BY 5..(MIDDLE)
IN THE LAST 25 YEARS VS THE POINT IT HAS ONLY HAPPEN ONCE
1998 STL WAS FAV BY 7.....IF YOU PLAY IT RIGHT YOU COULD OF WON BOTH SIDES....

MAY ALL YOUR BETS WIN

ACE